Is a Fundamental Shift on the Horizon for Brooklyn Real Estate?
The constant construction of new developments can't be sustainable.
The constant construction of new developments can't be sustainable.
Brooklyn has been one of the hottest real estate markets in the country over the past fifteen years. A study by RentCafe of “the fastest gentrifying ZIPs since the turn of the millennium” named the top 20 most gentrified neighborhoods in the country. To determine how gentrified a ZIP is, they took the area’s median home value, median household income, and the percentage of the population holding at least a bachelor’s degree into account. There were 5 Brooklyn ZIP codes in the top 20, featuring home value changes of between 111% and 194%.
As developers continue to flock to the borough, it begs the question: Is the market becoming oversupplied? Luxury towers are seemingly everywhere downtown, in Williamsburg, and Greenpoint. Smaller developments are everywhere throughout Bushwick, Fort Greene, Bed-Stuy, and more. Though sales prices continue to rise, rents have begun to decrease. According to a report from Douglas Elliman Real Estate, rents are down by 3.1% from last year, but rents don’t tell the full story.
Developers have steadily increased concessions to attract tenants. The same report from Elliman found that 47.5% of the market’s rental properties offered concessions as of February 2018. By comparison, that same number in February 2017 was only 15.7%, representing an over 300% increase. While there won’t be a shortage of rental demand in Brooklyn anytime soon, this striking increase in concessions indicates a fundamental shift in the market.Â
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It could be that tenants have developed higher standards. This fits the gentrification narrative that “higher quality” tenants will ask more from their landlords. Tenants with strong credit scores and higher salaries won’t simply be satisfied to be approved for their lease. However, it could also be that there are simply too many similar choices available in the market, and landlords now have to differentiate themselves with something other than hardwood floors, stainless steel appliances, and a long list of amenities.
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